《人民日報》罕見專訪英國前高官：1978年我就押寶中國，押對了！

編者按：在保護主義不斷抬頭、經濟全球化遭遇逆風之際，中國為何堅定不移擴大開放？中國持續擴大高水平開放對世界意味著什么？3月31日，英國經濟學家、倫敦市經濟與商業政策署前署長、中國人民大學重陽金融研究院高級研究員羅思義接受《人民日報》記者專訪，以西方學者視角透視中國擴大高水平開放的歷史邏輯與國際價值，指出中國的持續開放既是自身發展的必由之路，也是動蕩世界中最寶貴的確定性。相關內容整版發布于和，現將專訪中英文內容發布如下。羅思義英文新著亦將于近期發布，敬請關注： （中文內容約5900字，預計閱讀時間15分鐘）

▲原文整版發表于《人民日報》2026年3月31日第17版

Part 01

“中國在發展水平較低時，敢于下定決心對外開放，這份勇氣和判斷非常難得”

《人民日報》：在40多年來的改革開放實踐中，中國最讓您震撼的變化是什么？

羅思義：最引人注目的無疑是中國取得的巨大成功。1978年我剛開始研究中國經濟時，曾有人不解，說中國只是一個發展中國家，你應該研究德國或者美國。當時我的回答是，中國的發展必將取得巨大成功，因為中國的經濟發展理論是科學正確的。如今，事實已經充分印證了這一點，只要打開電視就有人在討論中國的發展。

中國發展的成功是長期且全方位的。從數據來看，中國經濟保持長期穩定增長態勢，經濟增速遠高于世界平均水平。2005年之前，我從未到過中國，只是從經濟政策和理論層面認定中國的發展思路極具智慧，必然會取得巨大成功。2005年，我第一次來到中國，此后開始頻繁到訪中國。2009年，我開始在中國的大學任職。這些年來，我見證了中國一個個重大發展項目落地，民眾生活水平切實提升。

我始終認為，經濟發展的本質不是建鋼廠、造高樓，而是以人為本。中國以人為本的發展理念絕不是口號，而是真正抓住了經濟發展的核心目的——讓民眾的生活變得更好，讓他們能接受更好的教育、享受更好的醫療。經濟的成功、物質的進步，最終都要落腳在民眾生活的改善上，這是最核心的一點。我經常往返于北京和上海，以前路上要花將近一天時間，現在坐高鐵最快只需約4個小時，這就是發展給民眾帶來的便利。

北京市規劃展覽館讓我印象深刻。展覽館里陳列著一張1949年時北京的城市規劃圖，當時故宮還是北京最大的建筑之一，如今這座城市早已發生天翻地覆的變化。站在那里，我更加堅信自己選擇了正確的研究方向。中國巨大的發展變化，縱觀人類歷史都是難以置信的。

《人民日報》：中國對經濟全球化有過疑慮，對加入世界貿易組織也有過忐忑，但堅信融入世界經濟是歷史大方向，“中國經濟要發展，就要敢于到世界市場的汪洋大海中去游泳”。您如何看待中國的開放進程？

羅思義：我一直堅定支持全球化。1978年中國一開啟改革開放進程，我就判斷，這一決策必然會讓中國取得成功。此后，我密切關注中國的發展。當初中國在發展水平較低時，敢于下定決心對外開放，這份勇氣和判斷非常難得。

從經濟學理論來看，貿易自由化、經濟全球化是經濟發展的必然選擇，脫離全球市場不可能實現真正的發展。一個國家要成為科技和經濟強國，必須參與全球分工與合作，中國的成功實踐就是明證。從前，有質疑聲音說，中國只會模仿、組裝，沒有創新能力；現在，現實已經徹底改變了外界對中國的看法——中國在電動汽車、可再生能源、人工智能等領域都成為全球領先者。這足以證明，中國選擇開放的決策是正確的。沒有哪個發展中國家能在對外開放上取得像中國這樣的成就，中國做到了。

Part 02

“開放在中國已經成為一種社會共識，融入中國的民族心態和文化特質中”

《人民日報》：在開放進程中，中國全社會在堅持和擴大開放上的共識是否發揮了重要作用？

羅思義：據我觀察，中國人對西方國家的了解程度，遠比西方人對中國的了解程度要深得多。

中國人的思維方式具有開放性，始終以平視的眼光看世界，從本國發展的實際出發，吸收借鑒各國的先進經驗，為中國所用。開放在中國已經成為一種社會共識，融入中國的民族心態和文化特質中。更重要的是，中國民眾在對外開放的過程中，逐漸建立起自信，這是全新的變化。也正因此，走國際化道路是中國發展的必然選擇。

《人民日報》：當前中國正全力推進制度型開放，從傳統的“要素流動型開放”到“制度型開放”，這是否意味著中國推進開放的重心發生了變化？

羅思義：中國的開放重心確實發生了變化，這種轉變非常必要、明智。在要素流動型開放階段，中國完成了初期的積累，而現在推進制度型開放，是中國與國際經濟體系深度對接的必然要求。

中國在聯合國等國際組織中發揮著越來越積極的作用。中國深入了解國際規則，結合自身發展實際建立起符合中國國情、與國際接軌的制度框架，與國際組織開展平等的互動合作。制度型開放不是沒有原則的開放，而是在遵循國際通用規則的基礎上，打造適合自身發展的制度體系。中國的這一發展路徑，邏輯清晰、步驟穩健，符合中國的發展階段，也符合全球化的發展趨勢。

《人民日報》：您曾經任職的倫敦是一座非常開放的城市。從人類發展史看，開放是否是一個國家發展進步的必然要求？

羅思義：的確，開放是一個國家發展進步的必然要求。每個國家的文化基礎不同，開放的方式也會有所差異，但開放的核心邏輯是相通的。倫敦是一座極具開放性的城市，來自世界各地的人在這里生活、工作。開放是倫敦能長期保持活力的關鍵。

中國的開放是將國際先進經驗、技術、規則吸收到自身的發展框架中，結合中國實際進行創新，是一種智慧的學習發展模式。

Part 03

“中國的發展成就和開放態度，讓各國看到了合作價值”

《人民日報》：當前全球保護主義、單邊主義抬頭。對于世界經濟和全球發展來說，保護主義會造成什么后果？

羅思義：保護主義的結果必然是負面的，但這種負面影響不會達到毀滅性的程度，因為實行保護主義的國家已經不再擁有足夠的實力主導全球經濟、迫使其他國家跟隨其保護主義政策。具體來說，會出現兩種趨勢：一方面，個別發達國家奉行保護主義，其經濟形勢會持續低迷，政治層面的矛盾也會加??；另一方面，全球南方國家會繼續堅定走向全球化。

保護主義阻擋不了全球開放的主流。世界上的大多數國家，尤其是新興的全球南方國家，都沒有選擇保護主義，而是繼續堅持開放，中國等國家支撐著全球經濟的開放格局。因此，保護主義會給全球經濟帶來傷害，但不足以逆轉人類歷史的開放趨勢。

《人民日報》：面對不斷抬頭的保護主義，中國堅定擴大高水平開放對世界經濟意味著什么？

羅思義：中國堅定擴大高水平開放將推動中國和世界的經濟增長。中國擁有超大規模的國內市場和完整的產業體系，是中國經濟持續向好的有利條件。中國擴大開放并非依賴外部市場，而是在立足國內的基礎上，與國際市場實現更深度的融合。這些年，中國堅定選擇開放發展道路，也收獲了開放帶來的成果——中國經濟始終保持穩定增長，民眾從經濟發展中獲得實際福祉。

世界上大多數國家都反對保護主義，堅持經濟全球化，這些國家需要一個穩定、開放的大國引領。作為世界第二大經濟體、第一大貨物貿易國，中國堅定擴大開放，會成為國際貿易體系的核心，吸引各國與中國開展合作。中國的發展成就和開放態度，讓各國看到了合作價值。今年以來，歐洲等地區領導人頻繁訪華，就是因為他們清楚，中國是堅持開放的重要經濟體，與中國合作符合其經濟利益。

《人民日報》：有一些聲音認為，經濟全球化造成部分國家貧富差距拉大。您怎么看？

羅思義：把貧富差距拉大歸咎于全球化純屬無稽之談。一些國家貧富差距的根源不是全球化，而是其國內政策失靈，把自身問題歸咎于全球化是完全錯誤的。

首先，從全球層面來看，全球化推動了包括中國在內的眾多全球南方國家的發展，這是有目共睹的。中國的發展成就不必多說，越南、印度尼西亞等國也在全球化中實現了快速發展，民眾生活水平大幅提升，這是全球化帶來的積極成果。其次，一些西方國家出現的貧富差距加劇問題，根源在于其國內政策失靈。以美國為例，過去幾十年，美國社會的財富分配失衡，經濟增長沒有惠及普通民眾，這是其國內政策問題，與全球化無關。

Part 04

“中國堅定擴大開放，為全球南方國家提供了更多合作選擇和發展機遇”

《人民日報》：中國“十五五”規劃綱要提出了一系列新的發展舉措，您最關注哪方面？

羅思義：我對于中國在科技創新領域的發展最為關注。沒有哪個發展中國家能像中國這樣，在眾多科技領域躋身全球領先行列。從“十四五”初期少數領域的技術領跑，到如今在電動汽車、可再生能源、人工智能等多個領域的全球領先，西方主流媒體紛紛報道中國的科技成就，這一轉變令人驚嘆。

中國的科技成就核心在于研發投入的高占比和高轉化效率，某些數字超過部分西方主要發達經濟體，且絕大部分研發投入應用于實體經濟，轉化為實際生產力。高水平的研發投入、與實體經濟的深度結合、政府的科學引導，這三大因素將推動中國科技發展持續突破。我相信，“十五五”規劃綱要的實施將讓中國在全球科技領域持續領先，通過與其他發展中國家的廣泛合作，也將推動各國共同發展。

《人民日報》：您如何看待中國與其他全球南方國家的開放合作？

羅思義：這種合作讓中國成為全球南方國家發展的重要引領者，也為全球南方現代化建設提供了新的選擇。金磚國家合作機制的發展是最明顯的例子。金磚國家是一個體量巨大的經濟合作組織，個別國家試圖阻礙其發展但沒有成功，原因就在于金磚國家的合作惠及了所有成員國，為各國提供了新的發展機遇。

對于全球南方國家來說，貿易伙伴越多，發展的空間就越大。作為世界上最大的貨物貿易國，中國堅定擴大開放，為全球南方國家提供了更多合作選擇和發展機遇，幫助這些國家突破發展瓶頸，走向現代化。

《人民日報》：您希望通過自己的研究和發聲，給中國、給世界傳遞怎樣的理念？

羅思義：德國著名哲學家黑格爾曾說，在世界歷史的每一個階段，都有一個民族擔當起世界精神的使命，而這個民族的精神符合世界歷史的必然進程。我堅信，在當前的歷史階段，人類發展的核心方向體現在中國的發展中。中國的復興并非依靠先天稟賦，而是選擇了符合自身國情的開放發展道路，抓住了歷史機遇。中國推進改革開放的初衷是解決自身發展問題，卻最終創造了人類歷史上最成功的經濟發展模式，推動了全球經濟發展。作為經濟學家，我希望通過研究，讓世界更客觀地認識中國的開放發展道路，讓中國的發展智慧為全球發展提供借鑒。

過往的生活經歷讓我見證了封閉帶來的困境，而在中國，我看到的是社會持續進步、民眾生活水平不斷提升的蓬勃景象。這種鮮明的對比，讓我對中國的開放發展道路有了更深刻的認知。從理論上理解發展規律是一回事，親身經歷不同國家的發展歷程是另一回事。中國選擇了符合自身國情的開放發展道路，抓住了歷史機遇。中國40多年的開放發展，用實際成果證明了這條道路的正確性。我希望更多國家能從中國的開放發展中獲得借鑒，共同推動全球經濟朝著更好的方向前進。

▲《環球時報》2026年4月2日第5版整版轉載

由羅思義領銜撰寫的著作《Economic Analysis of China in the World》（暫譯名：《世界經濟視野下的中國分析》）將于近期由LID出版公司與中國圖書進出口總公司合作出版。本書匯集了來自歐洲和拉丁美洲的六位頂尖經濟學家，從國際視角深度剖析中國的發展模式與全球影響。其中羅思義撰寫的開篇章節尤為引人注目，他以嚴謹的數據分析，直面并駁斥了西方關于“中國經濟效率低下”的主流敘事。

▲點擊查看視頻

在題為《為何中國社會主義經濟比資本主義更高效》的章節中，羅思義直指問題的核心。他引入國際通用的增量資本產出率（ICOR）作為衡量標準，即每產生1%的GDP增長所需的投資占GDP的比重。數據顯示，在截至2021年的五年平均值中，中國的ICOR為7.1，遠優于美國的10.0、歐元區的22.4和德國的30.3，在全球前20大經濟體中位居第二。這無可辯駁地證明，中國的投資在促進經濟增長方面比主要資本主義經濟體更為高效，所謂“中國需要5-7美元投資才能產生1美元GDP”的說法是純粹的“假新聞”。

他進一步揭示了高效背后的制度原因。通過對比2008年國際金融危機和新冠疫情危機期間中美兩國的表現，他指出：資本主義美國的經濟衰退伴隨著私人投資的劇烈萎縮，而社會主義中國則憑借強大的國有部門和國家主導的銀行體系，在危機中逆勢擴大了投資規模，從而穩住了經濟增長和投資效率。中國的國家投資發揮了強大的“反周期”調節作用，這是其宏觀經濟韌性和投資高效的關鍵。羅思義總結道，中國投資的高效性并非偶然，而是植根于其社會主義經濟體制的內在優勢。

本書其他章節還從去全球化、產業政策、中巴合作、全球經濟治理等多個維度，提供了理解中國經濟的豐富國際視角。本書旨在超越二元對立敘事，推動關于中國及多極化世界的理性對話。

作為本書的核心作者之一，羅思義長期深耕中國經濟研究，其著述被翻譯為多國語言，具有廣泛的國際影響力。此前，他已出版、以及等多部著作，系統闡述了對中國發展模式的深刻洞察。此次他通過扎實的經濟學分析，為“中國模式”的討論提供了堅實的實證支撐，再次彰顯了其作為知名中國問題專家的洞察力。該書現已啟動預熱，正式發售信息敬請關注后續發布。

英文內容

At a time when protectionism is rising and economic globalization faces growing headwinds, why does China remain committed to expanding opening up? What does its high-level opening up mean for the world?

In a recent interview with People's Daily, John Ross, former director for economic and business policy for the mayor of London and senior fellow at the Renmin University of China's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, shared his insights based on more than four decades of research on China's economy.

Q1: What has been the most striking change in China over the past 40-plus years?

A: The most striking thing is undoubtedly China's great success. When I began studying the Chinese economy in 1978, some people did not understand, saying that China was a developing country and that I should study Japan, Germany or the US. My answer was that China's development would be hugely successful because its economic theory was correct. Now, the facts have confirmed this, and many people are discussing China's development.

China's success is comprehensive. Its economy has grown steadily. Before 2005, I had never been to China, but from the perspective of economic policy and theory, I believed that China's thinking was very wise and would achieve great success. In 2005, I came to China for the first time, and I have been visiting ever since. In 2009, I began working at a university in China. Over the years, I have witnessed the implementation of major projects, and the most remarkable change has been the improvement in people's lives.

Q2: What experience in China impressed you most?

A: I believe the essence of the economy is not to build steel or buildings, but to put people's lives first. China's people-oriented approach is not a slogan, but the core purpose of the economy: to make people's lives better, so they can receive better education, enjoy better medical care and all the other things that allow them to lead a better life. Economic success and material progress must ultimately be reflected in improvements in people's lives.

To give a simple example, I often travel between Beijing and Shanghai. It used to take nearly a day, but now it takes about four hours by high-speed rail. This is the convenience brought to the public.

I was also deeply impressed by the Beijing Planning Exhibition Hall. It displays a city map from 1949, when the Forbidden City was one of the largest buildings in Beijing. Today, the city has undergone earth-shaking changes. Standing there, I was even more convinced that I chose the right field of research. The scale of China's transformation is extraordinary in human history.

Q3: How do you view China's shift from doubts about globalization to firm commitment to opening up?

A: I have always been a staunch supporter of globalization. As soon as China began its reform and opening up in 1978, I judged that this decision was part of what would lead to China's success. Since then, I have paid close attention to China. When China was at a low level [of development], it had to courage to open up to the outside world. Such courage and judgment are very rare.

From the perspective of economic theory, trade liberalization and economic globalization are inevitable choices, and it is impossible to realize real economic goals without the global market. If a country wants to become a technological and economic power, it must participate in the global division of labor and cooperation. China's success has proven this.

In the past, some believed that China could only imitate and assemble, and lacked innovation. Now, reality has completely changed that perception. China has become a global leader in fields such as electric vehicles, renewable energy and AI. This proves that China's decision to open up was correct. No developing country has achieved the same achievements as China in opening up.

Q4: Why has opening up become a consensus in China?

A: In my observation, Chinese people know much more about Western countries than Westerners know about China.

Chinese people have an open mindset, always look at the world from a head-up perspective, proceed from their own reality, absorb and learn from other countries, and use them for China? Openness has become a social consensus in China, embedded in its national character. More importantly, the Chinese people have gradually developed self-confidence through opening up, which is a brand-new change. This makes internationalization an inevitable choice for China.

Q5: Has China's focus shifted toward institutional opening up?

A: The focus of China's opening up has indeed changed, and this change is both necessary and wise. In the stage of factor-flow opening, China has completed the initial accumulation. Now, promoting institutional opening up is an inevitable requirement for China to deeply integrate with the international economic system.

China is playing an increasingly active role in international organizations. It has a deep understanding of international rules, has established an institutional framework in line with China's national conditions and international standards, and has carried out equal interaction and cooperation with these organizations. Institutional opening up is not opening up without principles, but building an institutional system that suits China while following general international rules. China's path has clear logic and steady steps, in line with its current stage and the broader trend of globalization.

Q6: Is openness essential for national development?

A: Indeed, opening up is an inevitable requirement for a country's progress. Each country has a different cultural foundation, and the way it opens up may also be different, but the core logic of openness is the same. London is a very open city, where people from all over the world live and work. Openness is the key to London's vitality.

China's opening up involves absorbing advanced international technology and rules into its own framework and innovating in combination with China's reality, which reflects a kind of wisdom in learning.

Q7: What are the consequences of rising protectionism?

A: The outcome of protectionism is necessarily negative, but this impact will not be globally devastating, because protectionist countries no longer have enough power to dominate the global economy and force others to follow their policies.

Specifically, there will be two trends: on the one hand, as some developed countries pursue protectionism, their economic situation will become sluggish and political conflicts will intensify. On the other hand, countries in the Global South will continue to move firmly toward globalization.

Protectionism cannot stop the overall trend of global openness. Most countries, especially emerging economies in the Global South, have not chosen protectionism. They continue to adhere to opening up. China and other countries support an open global economic system. Therefore, protectionism will hurt the global economy, but it will not be enough to reverse the long-term trend of openness in human history.

Q8: What does China's continued opening up mean for the global economy?

A: China's firm commitment to expanding high-level opening up will drive economic growth in both China and the world. China has a super-large domestic market and a complete industrial system, which are favorable conditions for the sustained improvement of its economy. China's expansion of opening up does not rely on external markets, but rather on achieving deeper integration with the international market based on its domestic foundation. In recent years, China has firmly pursued the path of open development and has reaped the benefits of openness, the economy has maintained stable growth and people have gained tangible benefits.

Most countries oppose protectionism and support globalization. These countries need a stable and open major power. As the world's second-largest economy and largest trading nation in goods, China is committed to expanding its openness and becoming a central pillar of the international trading system, attracting countries to cooperate. China's development achievements and open approach have demonstrated the value of cooperation. Since the beginning of this year, leaders from Europe and other regions have frequently visited China, recognizing that cooperation with China aligns with their economic interests.

Q9: Some say globalization has widened the wealth gap within countries. What is your take on this?

A: It is nonsense to blame globalization for the widening gap between rich and poor. The root cause of inequality in some countries is not globalization, but the failure of their domestic policies. It is wrong to attribute their own problems to globalization.

First, from a global perspective, globalization has promoted development in many countries in the Global South, including China, which is obvious to all. Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries have also achieved rapid globalization, and living standards have greatly improved, which is a positive result of globalization.

Second, the widening wealth gap in some Western countries is rooted in domestic policy failures. Take the US as an example: over the past few decades, wealth distribution has become increasingly uneven, and economic growth has not benefited ordinary people. This is a domestic policy issue, not a result of globalization.

Q10: Which aspect of China's opening up interests you most?

A: I am most interested in China's scientific and technological innovation. No other developing country can rank among the world's leaders in so many fields of science and technology like China. From being a technological leader in a few areas at the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan to becoming a global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy, AI and other fields, mainstream Western media has reported on China's scientific and technological achievements. This transformation is remarkable.

The core of China's scientific and technological achievements lies in the high proportion of R&D investment and the high efficiency of converting this investment into products. Some figures exceed those of major Western developed economies, and most R&D investment is applied to the real economy and transformed into actual productivity. High-level R&D investment, deep integration with the real economy and scientific guidance – these three factors promote China's technological breakthroughs. I believe that the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan will allow China to lead in an increasing number of global science and technology fields, and through extensive cooperation with other countries, it will also promote the common interests of all nations.

Q11: How do you view China-Global South cooperation?

A: This kind of cooperation has made China an important leader among the countries of the Global South and provided a new path for their modernization. The BRICS cooperation mechanism is the most obvious example. The BRICS countries form a huge economic cooperation organization. Some individual countries tried to hinder it but failed. The reason is that cooperation among BRICS countries benefits all member states and provides new opportunities for each.

For countries in the Global South, the more trading partners they have, the greater their opportunities. As the world's largest trader of goods, China has firmly expanded its opening up, offering more cooperation options and opportunities for these countries, and helping them overcome bottlenecks to move toward modernization.

Q12: What message do you hope to convey about China's development to the world?

A: The renowned German philosopher Georg Hegel once said, "World history is the progress of the consciousness of freedom." Framed in modern terms, this means that at a certain stage of world history, the progress of one country determines and reflects the progress of humanity.

I firmly believe that, at the current historical stage, the core direction of human development is reflected in China's development.

China's rejuvenation does not rely on innate endowments but has chosen an open path suited to its national conditions, creating a historical opportunity. China's original intention in promoting reform and opening up was to solve its own problems, but in the end, it achieved the most successful economic development in human history and promoted the global economy. As an economist, I hope that through research, the world can understand China's path more objectively and use China's experience as a reference.

Past experience has allowed me to personally witness economic disaster, for example, shock therapy in Russia in the 1990s. But in China, I see vigorous social progress and continuous improvement in people's living standards. This stark contrast has given me a deeper understanding of China's opening-up. Understanding economic laws theoretically is one thing. Experiencing the course of different countries firsthand is another. China has chosen an open path suited to its national conditions and has presented a historical opportunity. Its opening up over the past 40 years has proved the correctness of this path with tangible results. I hope more countries can learn from China's experience and jointly promote the global economy in a better direction.

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中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立于2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈并設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4個中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關系、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。

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